Swine Flu is Not the Apocalypse

[vdansk]

OK, we had five patients today, in rural MA, who thought they had swine flu.

They don't.

While contagious, annoying, and potentially dangerous for the very young, very old, and immunocompromised, swine flu has yet to kill ANYONE in a first world country. But what, you say, if this is the start of another outbreak like the 1918 epidemic?

Yes, the 1918 epidemic was bad. It's estimated that as many as one million people world wide died. And why did they die? First, they were malnourished; second, they had inadequate medical care. Third, antibiotics for the secondary infections--mostly pneumonia--hadn't been invented yet.

Wait, you say--malnourished? Surely not in America!

Well, yes. In 1918, a majority of Americans and Europeans got most of their nutrition from bread. This had never, over centuries, been a problem...until the introduction, in the early years of the century, of cheap white flour, and therefore cheap white bread. This, while greatly preferred by most people for the cachet attached to it, had all the nutrition of cardboard. In World War I, about 75% of recruits--healthy young men!-- were felt to be significantly malnourished.

We may be overweight and sedentary, but compared to our ancestors of that era, we are the picture of health. Even if swine flu comes, the vast majority of us will never need the stockpiled anti-virals, let alone hospitalization.

This has been a public service announcement. Feel free to copy and forward.

Comments

[warriorbard63.livejournal.com]

I've had a cold for a week and a half. I was just about feeling all better, and it came back last night. It's uncomfortable and irritating to be sick, and I appreciate the well wishes of friends and family. but if one more person says to me, "Wow, maybe you caught the swine flu.", I will strangle them slowly with old sweat socks.

[olivine-sidhe.livejournal.com]

I totally agree that people are going crazy over this flu which could easily turn out to be not that big a thing, particularly in the first world.

Only thing is - didn't the 1918 flu kill a whole lot more than 1 million people world wide? Are you confusing it with on of the other flu pandemics, like maybe the Asian flu of the 50's? Or did you mistype?

[reynaud.livejournal.com]

Did you see The Daily Show tonight? They had a bit about the swine flu. Including a bit where John Oliver was at the CDC, giving calm and reasoned advise. And Jason Jones at the Center of Things Some Guy Told Me, going all wild-panic crazy. "The entire state of Arizona is dead!"

It was hilarious.

[chris-warrior.livejournal.com]

i thought so, too. i googled and found that Stanford seems to think it killed between 20 and 40 million.

i have an incredibly healthy respect for viruses and their ability to mutate suddenly and wipe out other organisms. i'm not panicking (if it was a Felis virus i'd be more freaked) but i am what i'd call concerned.

that said, it's onlya matter of time until we *do* have another pandemic; they're part of the entire life package. i think the tone so far is a pretty good mix of preparation and common sense warnings.

[chris-warrior.livejournal.com]

i think it would have been funnier if it was Texas.

oops. bad Chris.

[warriorbard63.livejournal.com]

Of course, if it WERE the end of the world, we could call it the APORKALYPSE.

>oink-cough-oink

[rantarn.livejournal.com]

As long as the Swine Flu victims don't keep getting up and fighting me, I won't panic.

oops...

[vdansk]

Yes, it killed 20 million of the 1.8 billion people currently alive then. Just over 1%. (Or 2% if you believe the higher 40 million figure.) Twenty percent of the world population came down with it, which means that between 5 and 10% of those with clinical disease died of it. Which is terrible and awful, but seriously...that didn't even significantly slow down the growth of the human population that year!

For comparison...it is estimated that more people have died of malaria during the history of humanity than ALL OTHER CAUSES COMBINED. And here humanity still is. Plagues topple civilizations and governments, but they just don't slow us down for long, population wise.

[perimyndith.livejournal.com]

Speaking as a somewhat immune-suppressed person, it does worry me a bit, but more in the "well, if it pops up in Seattle maybe I'll stop taking the busses" sort of way.

On the up side, at least the media have something to freak out about besides the economy, right? :P